2027 Bracketology: Updated way-too-early NCAA Tournament projections with 76-team format

The NCAA Tournament field is officially moving from 68 teams to 76 this season, leaving more room for bubble teams to enter the mix after expansion. After the NBA Draft withdrawal decisions last month, the college basketball landscape continues to become more clear.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the new 76-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

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With the ‘First Four’ set to expand, pushing the cutline down from its current location, more teams will have a chance to land on the right side of the bubble. Using that information, here is another way-too-early look at the 2027 Bracketology field from On3 based on those changes.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Florida, Michigan, UConn, Duke
Last four byes: Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, St. Louis
Last four in: Marquette, Baylor, Creighton, Villanova
First four out: Stanford, Arizona State, Mississippi State, Florida State

‘First Four’ (Dayton)

15 Queens (ASUN) vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)
15 Arkansas State (SBC) vs. 15 Austin Peay (UAC)
16 UMBC (AEC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
16 Montana State (Big Sky) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
16 Merrimack (MAAC) vs. 16 Long Island (AEC)
16 Navy (Patriot) vs. 16 Tennessee State (OVC)
10 Auburn vs. 10 Providence
11 Oklahoma vs. 11 Pittsburgh
11 Oregon vs. 11 Marquette
11 Wisconsin vs. 11 Cincinnati
11 Oklahoma State vs. 11 Villanova
12 Baylor vs. 12 Creighton

East (New York)

Charlotte
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 Navy/Tennessee State
8 Iowa vs. 9 VCU (A10)
Minneapolis
5 Alabama vs. 12 Wichita State (American)
4 Louisville vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Sacramento
6 USC vs. 11 Oklahoma/Pittsburgh
3 Arizona vs. 14 UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
Omaha
7 Texas Tech vs. 10 Auburn/Providence
2 Illinois vs. 15 St. Thomas (Summit)

1-seed Florida

Florida has plenty of talent set to return for the 2026-27 season, bringing back valuable pieces to the backcourt and frontcourt. The latest news that Thomas Haugh will return for another season alongside Alex Condon is enough to push them into the top spot, with another international reinforcement coming.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois can bring back a good chunk of its talent next season, setting it up to bring in a talented freshman class ready to run the backcourt. The addition of Stefan Vaaks through the transfer portal will help ease that transition as they build on last season.

West (Los Angeles)

Charlotte
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Merrimack/Long Island
8 UCLA vs. 9 Texas A&M
Spokane
5 Indiana vs. 12 Baylor/Creighton
4 Tennessee vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Spokane
6 Kansas vs. 11 Oregon/Marquette
3 Gonzaga (Pac-12) vs. 14 Akron (MAC)
Louisville
7 Missouri vs. 10 St. Louis
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Wright State (Horizon)

1-seed Duke

Duke puts together another top-end recruiting class with multiple top prospects, all slotting in different areas of the court. The Blue Devils have confirmed the return of multiple starters while adding highly-rated transfers.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State will bring back plenty of talent to the backcourt and the wings next season, although the frontcourt will see big turnover. The incoming recruiting class will help fill gaps, but it will be a position to watch in the transfer portal.

Midwest (Kansas City)

Pittsburgh
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Montana State/Southern
8 West Virginia vs. 9 Clemson
Sacramento
5 Iowa State vs. 12 Utah State (MWC)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 McNeese (Southland)
Fort Worth
6 St. John’s vs. 11 Wisconsin/Cincinnati
3 Arkansas vs. 14 Liberty (CUSA)
Louisville
7 Nebraska vs. 10 Georgia
2 Virginia vs. 15 Queens/ETSU

1-seed Michigan

Michigan looks likely to stay near the top of college basketball next season, with key pieces currently projected to return, along with big additions. The Wolverines have once again invested big in the frontcourt across recruiting and the transfer portal.

2-seed Virginia

Virginia returns the core of its team from last season, making the building process easier for second-year coach Ryan Odom. Reinforced with a transfer class which features multiple players ready to enter the rotation, they look primed to continue a strong run.

South (San Antonio)

Pittsburgh
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 UMBC/Howard
8 Kentucky vs. 9 BYU
Minneapolis
5 Miami vs. 12 St. Mary’s (WCC)
4 Texas vs. 13 Belmont (MVC)
Omaha
6 LSU vs. 11 Oklahoma State/Villanova
3 Purdue vs. 14 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Fort Worth
7 North Carolina vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Houston vs. 15 Arkansas State/Austin Peay

1-seed UConn

UConn could get back the core of a talented backcourt next season, also hitting the recruiting trail for a talented group of players. The addition of Najai Hines was backed up by the return of star freshman Braylon Mullins, while offseason surgery for Solo Ball will hurt.

2-seed Houston

Houston remains a top team year after year, bringing in another talented recruiting class to complement a returning group. The Cougars also did early work in the transfer portal, quickly building out a solid rotation for next season.