Lincoln Regional preview: ASU opens postseason in Nebraska’s bracket

The stage is set.

No more field of 64 projections. No more debates over RPI, hosting scenarios or whether ASU sits as a No. 2 or No. 3 seed. The bracket is locked in. The opponent is known. Everything else is gone. All that matters now is winning.

Monday’s selection show unfolded differently than most expected. Final projections from D1Baseball and Baseball America had ASU headed to a Tuscaloosa Regional as a No. 2 seed, a placement that had held steady since the Sun Devils’ quarterfinal win over Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament.

Instead, ASU slid into the lower half of the hosted regionals, landing in the Lincoln Regional in Nebraska as the No. 3 seed. Nebraska earned the No. 13 national seed and the host role, while Ole Miss arrived as the No. 2 seed and South Dakota State rounded out the field as the No. 4.

At first glance, the draw carries weight. A familiar SEC power in Ole Miss sits in the same bracket, and the host Cornhuskers bring a packed home environment. It is not the cleanest path on paper. Still, there is another way to frame it. ASU avoided the kind of regional gauntlet that could have included programs like Georgia, Georgia Tech or UCLA as two seeds, the type of national-caliber teams few programs are equipped to beat twice in the span of a weekend. In a regional where separation is thin, chaos is always close.

In that sense, the bracket offers both pressure and possibility. There are no easy roads left, only different ones.

With that being said, here’s how each of ASU’s opponents stacks up.

NEBRASKA (No. 1 seed, No. 20 in the D1Baseball Top 25)

Nebraska enters its home regional in the middle of its best season since 2008, the last time Haymarket Park hosted NCAA Tournament baseball. The Cornhuskers went 42-15 overall, 23-7 in Big Ten play and a staggering 23-1 at home, with their lone loss in Lincoln coming against Kansas.

The resume reflects both Nebraska’s quality and the uneven nature of the Big Ten. USC finished fourth in the conference yet sits No. 9 in RPI, while sixth-place Ohio State sits at No. 87. Fifth-place Purdue and seventh-place Michigan were separated by almost nothing nationally at No. 53 and No. 54 in RPI.

Nebraska consistently lived at the top of that divide and validated it outside the conference. The Cornhuskers sit No. 10 in RPI with a 9-8 Quad 1 record, highlighted by a sweep of USC and wins over Oregon, Auburn and Florida State. Even with a strength of schedule outside the nation’s top tier, the resume still carries real weight.

The season, though, has not been spotless. Nebraska dropped its nonconference series to Auburn, lost both midweek meetings with Kansas and went 1-3 combined against Oregon, including a series loss and its Big Ten Tournament exit. Just weeks after sweeping USC, the Cornhuskers were swept by Ohio State, a reminder of how volatile the profile can be.

There is also a small but notable Big 12 crossover. Nebraska went 2-1 against Kansas State and dropped both games against Kansas. ASU did not face Kansas but went 2-1 against Kansas State, a subtle shared reference point between two different paths.

Still, at its peak, Nebraska looks like a national seed-caliber team.

The offense is built more on pressure than power. Nebraska led the Big Ten with a .312 batting average, ranked second with 123 doubles and finished fifth in runs scored despite being near the bottom in home runs. Against elite pitching, the highs have been significant, including 36 runs in three games against USC, nine in a win over Auburn and 10 against Oregon, though consistency has been the issue at times.

Senior infielder Dylan Carey leads the group after earning first-team All-Big Ten honors and Defensive Player of the Year recognition. The depth behind him is what drives the lineup. Junior infielder Case Sanderson posted a team-best 1.044 OPS, freshman outfielder Drew Grego was named Big Ten Freshman of the Year after a .991 OPS and seven home runs, and junior outfielder Mac Moyer hit .361 while leading the team in runs and stolen bases.

The approach carries clear tradeoffs. Nebraska is aggressive early in counts, ranks near the bottom of the conference in walks and strikes out at one of the higher rates in the Big Ten. Against swing-and-miss pitching, that profile can stall, as seen in stretches against Oregon, including 35 strikeouts across the series and Big Ten Tournament matchup. That is where the inconsistency tends to surface.

Overall, it is a productive offense, but one that would prefer to avoid a slugfest with Ole Miss and ASU.

On the mound, Nebraska has enough frontline pitching to match anyone in the regional. Sophomore right-hander Carson Jasa earned first-team All-Big Ten honors with a 3.76 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 81.1 innings. Sophomore right-hander Gavin Blachowicz (3.93 ERA) and junior right-hander Ty Horn (3.97 ERA) round out a reliable weekend trio.

The concern comes after them.

The bullpen is less stable. Of Nebraska’s most-used relief arms, only two have ERAs under 5.00 and none under 4.00. Junior right-hander Junior Katskee has logged 60.2 innings with a 5.49 ERA, ranking fourth on the staff in workload.

Nebraska’s 4.4 walks per nine innings and inconsistent relief command have periodically turned strong starts into stress, especially against patient offenses. When the Cornhuskers lose, the pattern is familiar: free passes, rising pitch counts and bullpen innings arriving under pressure.

OLE MISS (No. 2 seed, No. 17 in the D1Baseball Top 25)

Ole Miss enters this regional chasing a return to the mountaintop it stood on only a few years ago. The Rebels won the College World Series in 2022 and reached super regionals in back-to-back seasons from 2021-22, looking like the SEC’s next long-term power.

Then came the drop-off. Ole Miss followed its national title with consecutive 20-win seasons before finally getting back into the NCAA Tournament in 2025, falling one win short of a super regional. This year has felt like the next step in that climb.

The Rebels arrive in Lincoln at 36-21 with a 15-15 SEC record and a No. 18 RPI, but the defining number is strength of schedule. Ole Miss played the third-toughest slate in the country, facing 31 Quad 1 games and winning 14.

That battle-tested resume shows up across the board. The Rebels swept Missouri State in nonconference play and picked up SEC series wins over Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Kentucky, all NCAA Tournament teams. At the same time, they were exposed by the league’s elite, dropping series to Texas, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi State while going 0-4 against the Bulldogs. Nonconference losses to Southern Miss and Coastal Carolina also stand out.

Still, it is hard to dwell on losses when every weekend feels like a regional. Compared to Nebraska’s No. 43 strength of schedule and ASU’s No. 82 mark, Ole Miss is far more hardened by its path. ASU went 1-4 against SEC opponents. Nebraska went 1-2. South Dakota State did not face one.

That leaves Ole Miss in a dangerous middle ground. Not dominant enough to host, but proven enough to look capable of winning the entire regional.

The biggest edge sits on the mound.

Sophomore left-hander Walker Hooks earned first-team All-SEC honors out of the bullpen after posting a 2.09 ERA with 54 strikeouts in 47.1 innings. Sophomore right-hander Cade Townsend made the All-SEC second team and enters the MLB draft cycle as one of the staff’s top arms, working a 94-97 mph fastball with multiple breaking pitches and a cutter while posting a 3.81 ERA across 59 innings. ASU could see him Friday.

Depth behind them is just as important. Eight Ole Miss pitchers have thrown at least 29 innings, and only two have ERAs above 4.25. The Rebels rank second in the SEC and fifth nationally in strikeouts with 637, one spot ahead of ASU. Like the Sun Devils, the raw stuff is there. The challenge has been sustaining it across full weekends.

Offensively, Ole Miss reflects SEC volatility. The Rebels finished 10th in the league in runs, 13th in batting average and ninth in OPS. The profile leans heavily on power, ranking sixth in home runs while finishing last in doubles and triples combined.

That makes the lineup boom-or-bust and prone to swing-and-miss stretches. Ole Miss struck out 589 times, the most in the SEC, with four hitters ranking among the conference’s top eight in strikeouts.

No player reflects that more than senior infielder Judd Utermark. The All-SEC second-teamer struck out the fourth-most times in the league but still hit 20 home runs with a 1.071 OPS and .318 average. Senior outfielder Tristan Bissetta matched him with 20 homers, ranked second in the SEC in strikeouts and led the team with 57 RBIs. Senior infielder Will Furniss provides balance at .315 with a team-best .434 on-base percentage and 52 RBIs.

That swing-and-miss profile could define the regional against an ASU staff that ranks fifth nationally in strikeouts. Ole Miss’ low points have often come when those issues stack up. The Rebels scored six runs in a sweep against Mississippi State while striking out 39 times, then managed just two runs in back-to-back losses to Texas while striking out 26 times across the two games.

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (No. 4 seed)

South Dakota State enters the NCAA Tournament as one of the field’s biggest longshots. The Jackrabbits are making just their second Division I tournament appearance and first since 2013, the only other season they won the Summit League Tournament.

Their path here has been unlikely from the start.

South Dakota State arrives at 24-31 overall, 12-15 in Summit play and just 10-23 on the road. The Jackrabbits needed a stunning conference tournament run to get in, including two wins over Oral Roberts, a team that swept them in two separate regular-season series.

Baseball America ranked South Dakota State No. 64 out of the 64 tournament teams, and the metrics support it. The Jackrabbits sit No. 242 in RPI and lost nearly half of their Quad 4 games this season.

The schedule offered little evidence of a breakthrough. South Dakota State was swept by UTSA, swept twice by Oral Roberts, dropped all three games against Big 12 opponents Kansas State and Oklahoma State, and lost twice to Minnesota. There were a few bright spots, including a series win over WAC champion Tarleton State and a victory over Northwestern, but the overall resume remains thin.

Still, this is baseball, where momentum can flip quickly in June. South Dakota State already shocked its conference tournament. The question is whether that version of the Jackrabbits is sustainable against a regional loaded with power-conference talent.

The biggest concern is on the mound.

South Dakota State owns a 7.25 team ERA, only fourth-best in the six-team Summit League, where five teams posted ERAs above 6.30. Baseball America also listed the Jackrabbits’ average fastball velocity at 87.7 mph, a dangerous formula in a regional filled with explosive offenses.

Only one South Dakota State pitcher posted an ERA under 5.00: senior reliever Ty Madison, who threw 66.1 innings with a 4.75 ERA. Senior right-hander Sam Schlecht led the staff with 72 innings and 70 strikeouts but carried a 5.88 ERA across 14 starts.

The damage against stronger competition was significant. The Jackrabbits allowed nine runs to Kansas State, 19 combined in two losses to Oklahoma State and 55 runs across six regular-season losses to Oral Roberts. Their conference tournament run did show improvement, allowing just 14 runs over four games against Oral Roberts and Northern Colorado.

If South Dakota State is going to threaten anyone in Lincoln, it will likely come from its offense. The Jackrabbits led the Summit League in runs, batting average and on-base percentage, though those numbers translated to just 114th nationally in scoring.

Sophomore infielder Nolan Grawe and junior infielder Luke Luskey headlined the lineup as first-team All-Summit selections. Luskey hit 13 home runs with a .990 OPS and a conference-best 55 RBIs, while Grawe posted a .321 average with 18 doubles and a .948 OPS.

The challenge is lineup depth. South Dakota State leans heavily on the top half of its order, with the bottom portion struggling to produce consistent power.

Ultimately, the Jackrabbits’ regional hopes come down to whether their Summit League Tournament surge was a brief hot streak or a sign of genuine late-season growth. Against the level of competition waiting in Lincoln, that answer will come quickly.