Countdown to kickoff prediction series: South Carolina returns to win column this bowl season

On Thursday, with it being 100 days until South Carolina kicks off the season, I posted a story on GamecockCentral entitled “100 predictions for the 2026 Gamecocks.” Now, that countdown is down to just 97 days.

The prediction paired with day 97 read “USC will return to the win column this bowl season, marking the program’s first bowl victory since 2021.”

Let’s break down that prognostication.

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How South Carolina will get there

*First, a disclaimer: If South Carolina were to have a good enough season to make the College Football Playoff, they will not play in a traditional “bowl” (at least not in the first round), but I will claim this prediction as accurate if that happens.*

Typically, an SEC schedule that sees a group win between six and nine games results in a bowl berth, though some nine-win teams could earn consideration for the CFP. Not every 10-2 team from the conference has made the CFP, but several have. Beyond that, every six-win team from the country’s deepest conference has made a bowl for nearly two decades.

Shane Beamer’s team did not make a bowl in 2025 after posting a 4-8 record. To change fortunes for 2025, South Carolina will have to pick up at least two more wins. For the Gamecocks, this likely means knocking off both Kent State and Towson before claiming victories over at least four power conference opponents.

Both Mississippi State and Kentucky represent teams that will probably be underdogs against Carolina in the season’s first month. Beyond that, it is too early to know what Vegas will think about the Gamecocks’ chances each week. A 4-1 record in the season’s first five games (Kent State, Towson, Mississippi State, @ Alabama, and Kentucky) would certainly help the cause.

If South Carolina can get off to that fast start, reaching bowl eligibility shouldn’t prove too difficult. Though it comes on the road, the Gamecocks play Arkansas, another team projected lower on the SEC totem pole. They would also have six contests against Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Clemson to earn wins.

South Carolina isn’t merely shooting for bowl eligibility this fall, but it is a good “minimum requirement threshold” standard. Then, after reaching a bowl, the only thing to do is to win it.

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What might this bowl look like?

Beyond the College Football Playoff, the SEC has bowl tie-ins with the Citrus Bowl, ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl, Gator Bowl, Texas Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl, and Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The conference could also put teams in the Birmingham Bowl and the Gasparilla Bowl. The Sugar Bowl, typically reserved for the SEC champ, is part of the CFP.

The Citrus Bowl is the top non-CFP bowl with a direct SEC tie-in. After that, there is technically no prestige distinction between the ReliaQuest, Gator, Texas, Liberty, Music City, or Duke’s Mayo Bowls. The Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls are a step lower than the others in the SEC’s bowl hierarchy.

At the time of this writing, most of South Carolina’s bowl predictions have come for the Liberty Bowl, a postseason offering usually reserved for an SEC squad sporting a 6-6 or 7-5 regular season record. Houston and Cincinnati have been the teams most often paired with South Carolina in early projections in the Liberty Bowl.

The Gamecocks have played in the Liberty Bowl twice. Following the 2006 season, Steve Spurrier’s USC team knocked off Houston. In 1988, Joe Morrison’s final game was a loss to Indiana in the Liberty Bowl. Back in ’88, an era with fewer bowls, Carolina entered with an 8-3 record. Then, in ’06, the Gamecocks were 7-5 heading into bowl season.

Most offseason wins projections for South Carolina have been set at 6.5. That would put South Carolina right in line for that Liberty Bowl berth. Expectations are higher in Columbia, however.

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