Countdown to kickoff prediction series: South Carolina improves its win total significantly

On Thursday, with it being 100 days until South Carolina kicks off the season, I posted a story on GamecockCentral entitled “100 predictions for the 2026 Gamecocks.”

The prediction paired with day 100 read “South Carolina will win at least seven games during the regular season.”

Let’s break down that prognostication.

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Improvement from last year

There is no nice way of saying that the Gamecocks went 4-8 last year. The 2025 season was a massive disappointment, as players and coaches underperformed. Head coach Shane Beamer made some significant changes, but that is what is necessary after a showing like 2025.

Frankly, offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s tenure was a disaster, and offensive line coach Lonnie Teasley’s unit performed as one of the worst in all of power conference football. Running backs coach Marquel Blackwell’s less-than-stellar unit, poor recruiting, and baffling rotations hurt the team, too. Now, all three of those men have been replaced.

Kendal Briles is the new OC and quarterbacks coach, and he brings with him a proven track record of success. His hand-picked offensive line maestro, veteran Randy Clements, is as familiar with his system as anyone. Experienced assistant Stan Drayton has taken over the running backs room and provides some additional value as a former head coach, hence his title as assistant head coach.

A handful of other new assistants joined them, including director of scouting Rex Hogan, director of process development Marius Aleksa, special teams coordinator Matthew Smiley, defensive ends/outside linebackers coach Deion Barnes, assistant offensive line coach Jason Smith, assistant wide receivers coach Cade Fortin, assistant tight ends coach Jacob Oehrlein, assistant defensive tackles coach Jordan Williams, defensive assistant Dre Bly, defensive assistant Luke Doty (yes, that Luke Doty), and assistant special teams coach Michael Krysl.

In addition to those staffing changes, South Carolina upgraded via the transfer portal.

Though some expected contributors left, many who exited the program had not performed very well in Columbia. The Gamecocks brought in a long list of players from all three phases who should help the team majorly this fall. Names like Jacarrius Peak, Emmanuel “Kojo” Poku, Nitro Tuggle, Tomiwa Durojaiye, Caleb Herring, and Quay’sheed Scott could be impact players.

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Where will the wins come from this fall?

Upgrading the roster and coaching staff made South Carolina better, at least in theory. But where might the wins come from on the 2026 Gamecock schedule? The entire schedule is seen below.

Saturday, September 5: Kent State Golden Flashes
Saturday, September 12: Towson Tigers
Saturday, September 19: Mississippi State Bulldogs (Family Weekend)
Saturday, September 26: @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, October 3: Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, October 10: @ Florida Gators
BYE
Saturday, October 24: Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday, October 31: @ Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, November 7: Texas A&M Aggies (Homecoming)
Saturday, November 14: @ Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 21: Georgia Bulldogs (Senior Day/Night)
Saturday, November 28: @ Clemson Tigers

If South Carolina is not 2-0 to start the year, having a good season becomes almost impossible. However, there isn’t much of a realistic chance that either Kent State or Towson will give USC trouble.

To reach seven or more wins, Shane Beamer’s team will need to take at least two of the next three. Barring something unforeseen, Carolina should be favored at home against both Mississippi State and Kentucky. Alabama on the road is a tough matchup, but the Gamecocks played the Crimson Tide to last-possession affairs in 2024 and 2025.

No matter how it plays out, South Carolina probably needs a 4-1 start to the year.

Sandwiching the bye week are matchups against traditional SEC East rivals, Florida (on the road) and Tennessee (at home). While both appear winnable, the Gamecocks likely will need at least a split here.

A Halloween showdown on the road against Oklahoma leads into a home contest against Texas A&M. Then, South Carolina hits the road for a meeting with Arkansas before rivalry matchups against Georgia at home and Clemson on the road.

None of those five games projects to be easy, though the Gamecocks should hold a point-spread advantage against the Razorbacks. That is probably close to a “must-win.” In total, a seven-win regular season would require at least two victories during this difficult stretch. Claiming three Ws likely would allow an eight-win team to finish the regular season ranked, and if that comes with South Carolina stealing an earlier game on the schedule (a ninth win), the conversation could shift to the College Football Playoff.

The Insiders Forum: Discuss South Carolina football!