South Carolina women's basketball: Offseason outlooks for the guards

Each offseason, GamecockCentral looks at the strengths, weaknesses, and offseason outlook for each player.

We begin the series by looking at South Carolina’s returning guards. We’ll cover the forwards and incoming players in the coming weeks.

Tessa Johnson (Senior, Guard, 6-0)
38 games, 28.2 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.5 apg, 44.8 3P%

Strengths: Johnson led the SEC in three-point shooting percentage and was fourth in the country. Her 90 made threes were the third-most in a single season in program history, and her career 44.0% shooting from behind the arc is second in program history. Johnson’s shooting gets most of the attention, but she showed growth as a three-level scorer and backup point guard.

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Weaknesses: Johnson was a solid defender off the bench her first two seasons, but she was exposed last season when she was forced to become South Carolina’s primary wing defender, recording the second-worst defensive rating on the team. Offensively, there are times when it feels like she should be shooting more often.

Offseason focus: The WNBA would like to see continued growth from Johnson driving the ball or hitting midrange jumpers. South Carolina is more concerned with improved defense and point guard play. There is no backup point guard on the roster, and Johnson has the most experience in that role. There is a strong likelihood it’s her job next season.

Projection: The late-season emergence of Agot Makeer and the addition of Jordan Lee should mean that Johnson no longer has to guard the other team’s top perimeter scorer. That should help her immediately. Johnson’s goal last offseason was to become more consistent, and she accomplished that. The next step is to become more dominant. If she proves she can also handle point guard duties, Johnson could be a first-round draft pick.

Jordan Lee (Junior, Guard, 6-0)
39 games, 31.7 mpg, 13.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 34.8 3P%

Strengths: Lee is an athletic defender and a strong three-point shooter. For two seasons, she was practically the only three-point threat for Texas. Lee balances her shooting with aggressive dribble-drives and was a key part of the Longhorns’ smothering defense.

Weaknesses: Lee’s three-point percentage dropped from 38.9% as a freshman to 34.8% as a sophomore, and she only shot 42.2% overall last season. The drop in three-point percentage can be chalked up to a larger sample size and being the only shooting threat for Texas. But she misses too many shots inside the arc.

Offseason focus: First and foremost, Lee needs to learn a brand-new offensive system. Vic Schaefer’s offensive system is, while mostly effective, somewhat archaic. By comparison, Dawn Staley runs a modern pro-style system. First-year players often say they don’t feel totally comfortable until after Christmas.

Projection: You can never have too many athletic defenders who can knock down threes. Johnson was often South Carolina’s only reliable three-point threat last season, so adding Lee is a big boost. Lee can also guard the other team’s top perimeter scorer, relieving Johnson of that responsibility. 

Maddy McDaniel (Junior, Point Guard, 5-9)
33 games, 19.7 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 2.7 apg, 0.5 tpg

Strengths: Mouse doesn’t turn the ball over. Her assist-to-turnover ratio last season was 5.18. She didn’t qualify for the national rankings, but that easily topped Quinnipiac’s Paige Girardi’s 4.40, which officially led the nation. She developed into a solid defender last season and has an explosive first step and strong point guard instincts. McDaniel probably would have played more, but she was behind Raven Johnson, who was arguably South Carolina’s most important player. 

Weaknesses: McDaniel only shot 33.3% from three last season, and her overall shooting percentage dropped from 50.0% as a freshman to 35.5% last season. She can get by her defender, but she doesn’t always capitalize on it.

Offseason focus: McDaniel was 3-13 from three as a freshman and 11-33 as a sophomore. She made significant improvement last offseason and needs to continue to get better. McDaniel also needs to cut down on empty drives to the basket. Too often last season, she got to the rim but didn’t have an open layup or anyone to pass to, and wound up hoping for a foul. That was okay last season, but as a presumptive starter next year, you can’t have that many empty possessions.

Projection: McDaniel steps into one of the most scrutinized, pressure-packed positions in women’s college basketball: South Carolina point guard. Staley has set McDaniel up to succeed, surrounding her with a deep and talented roster. It’s not quite as simple as “just bring the ball over half-court,” but South Carolina just needs McDaniel to contribute more positives than negatives. 

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Agot Makeer (Sophomore, Wing, 6-1)
32 games, 19.3 mpg, 7.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.1 spg

Strengths: Defense. Defense. Defense. At her best, Makeer is one of the best perimeter defensive players in the country, and there are few players who can turn defense into offense faster than her. Her offensive game is much less refined, but she puts the ball in the basket. On the biggest stage in the NCAA Tournament, Makeer was at her best.

Weaknesses: Makeer was great in the NCAA Tournament, but kind of meh the rest of the season. A concussion in November and an injury in January set her back, but it’s fair to wonder whether tournament Agot or regular season Agot is the real Makeer. Makeer shot 38.5% from three in the NCAA Tournament, but only 22.6% the rest of the season.

Offseason focus: Basically, Makeer needs to bottle what she did in the tournament and play like that all season. More specifically, Makeer needs to shoot better from three. She won the preseason three-point contest, but then lost her during the season. Whatever happened, she needs to correct. Makeer also needs to get stronger. She may never be a physical, Brea Beal-type defender, but last season, Makeer was limited because the Gamecocks couldn’t match her up against bigger guards.

Projection: Makeer should have a big role. Staley prioritizes defense, and with Raven Johnson gone, Makeer could be South Carolina’s top defender. She’s pretty good on the other side of the court, too. Makeer finished her freshman season by outplaying Azzi Fudd and Olivia Miles, the first two picks in the WNBA Draft, head-to-head. The challenge might be not to put too much pressure on her too soon.

Ayla McDowell (Sophomore, Wing, 6-2)
36 games, 13.9 mpg, 4.1 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 36.3 3P%

Strengths: McDowell made 29 threes, the third most on the team. Her 36.3% percentage from three was fourth on the team, so she wasn’t just chucking up garbage time shots.

Weaknesses: McDowell didn’t do much besides shoot threes. She took almost twice as many threes (80) as twos (41), and had the worst defensive rating on the team.

Offseason focus: More than anything, she needs to improve defensively. With as much depth as South Carolina has next season, there won’t be much playing time for someone who is a defensive liability.

Projection: McDowell has something she can build on: three-point shooting. But on a deep team, that won’t be enough. McDowell was a late-bloomer in high school who didn’t become a top recruit until her senior year. She knows how to put in work, and she knows how to get better. She may not have a big role next season, but her best basketball is ahead of her.

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